March brought a notable shift in the Greater Toronto Area resale market: sales increased from last year, new listings dropped, and selling prices were lower than a year ago. According to TRREB, that combination tightened market conditions compared to March 2025, while still giving buyers meaningful negotiating leverage heading into the spring season.
What TRREB says changed in March
TRREB reported 5,039 home sales in March 2026, a 1.7% increase year-over-year. At the same time, new listings fell to 14,442, down 16.7% compared to March 2025. Fewer new listings means less fresh supply entering the market, which can tighten conditions even if overall inventory remains elevated.
Prices are still down year-over-year
Despite improved demand, prices remained softer than last spring. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was down 7.4% year-over-year in March 2026, and the average selling price was $1,017,796, down 6.7% from March 2025.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, TRREB noted prices were relatively flat: the HPI edged down slightly while the average price edged up compared to February. In other words, the bigger story is still the year-over-year reset, not a sudden monthly surge.
Why buyers still have negotiating power
TRREB points to buyers benefiting from “substantial negotiating power on price” across major segments. Even with sales improving, softer year-over-year pricing suggests sellers are still adjusting expectations, and buyers can often negotiate on:
- Price (especially if a listing has been sitting)
- Conditions (financing, inspection, status certificate for condos)
- Closing timelines to match the buyer’s needs
- Repairs and credits uncovered during inspections
What a “tightening” market could mean for the rest of 2026
If the trend continues—sales rising faster than listings—market conditions may gradually tighten further. TRREB’s view is that if tightening persists, prices could begin to level off through the remainder of 2026. That doesn’t guarantee quick price gains, but it can reduce the odds of continued year-over-year declines.
TRREB also highlighted that consumer confidence matters. Improvements in broader economic and geopolitical conditions could encourage more households to act, supporting sales activity as spring progresses.
Supply concerns: the medium-to-long term issue
Beyond month-to-month resale dynamics, TRREB flagged a bigger risk: the housing “supply pipeline” could run dry over the medium to long term if new home sales and construction don’t rebound. Policy measures like HST and development charge relief are intended to improve project viability and affordability, but TRREB emphasizes the importance of building the right mix—particularly “missing middle” housing that bridges the gap between condos and detached homes.
What to do with this information
If you’re buying this spring, you may be seeing the best of both worlds: improved affordability versus last year and room to negotiate, even as conditions begin to tighten. If you’re selling, tightening conditions are helpful, but pricing realistically to today’s market is still key.
Practical takeaway: Buyers should negotiate confidently but move decisively on well-priced homes; sellers should watch listing supply closely and price to recent comparable sales, not last year’s peak expectations.